Chairman's Letter - 1984

Chairman’s Letter - 1984

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY INC.

To the Shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway Inc.:

Our gain in net worth during 1984 was $152.6 million, or

$133 per share. This sounds pretty good but actually it’s

mediocre. Economic gains must be evaluated by comparison with

the capital that produces them. Our twenty-year compounded

annual gain in book value has been 22.1% (from $19.46 in 1964 to

$1108.77 in 1984), but our gain in 1984 was only 13.6%.

As we discussed last year, the gain in per-share intrinsic

business value is the economic measurement that really counts.

But calculations of intrinsic business value are subjective. In

our case, book value serves as a useful, although somewhat

understated, proxy. In my judgment, intrinsic business value and

book value increased during 1984 at about the same rate.

Using my academic voice, I have told you in the past of the

drag that a mushrooming capital base exerts upon rates of return.

Unfortunately, my academic voice is now giving way to a

reportorial voice. Our historical 22% rate is just that -

history. To earn even 15% annually over the next decade

(assuming we continue to follow our present dividend policy,

about which more will be said later in this letter) we would need

profits aggregating about $3.9 billion. Accomplishing this will

require a few big ideas - small ones just won’t do. Charlie

Munger, my partner in general management, and I do not have any

such ideas at present, but our experience has been that they pop

up occasionally. (How’s that for a strategic plan?)

Sources of Reported Earnings

The table on the following page shows the sources of

Berkshire’s reported earnings. Berkshire’s net ownership

interest in many of the constituent businesses changed at midyear

1983 when the Blue Chip merger took place. Because of these

changes, the first two columns of the table provide the best

measure of underlying business performance.

All of the significant gains and losses attributable to

unusual sales of assets by any of the business entities are

aggregated with securities transactions on the line near the

bottom of the table, and are not included in operating earnings.

(We regard any annual figure for realized capital gains or losses

as meaningless, but we regard the aggregate realized and

unrealized capital gains over a period of years as very

important.)

Furthermore, amortization of Goodwill is not charged against

the specific businesses but, for reasons outlined in the Appendix

to my letter in the 1983 annual report, is set forth as a

separate item.

(000s omitted)


Net Earnings

Earnings Before Income Taxes After Tax


Total Berkshire Share Berkshire Share


1984 1983 1984 1983 1984 1983


Operating Earnings:

Insurance Group:

Underwriting ………… $(48,060) $(33,872) $(48,060) $(33,872) $(25,955) $(18,400)

Net Investment Income … 68,903 43,810 68,903 43,810 62,059 39,114

Buffalo News ………….. 27,328 19,352 27,328 16,547 13,317 8,832

Nebraska Furniture Mart(1) 14,511 3,812 11,609 3,049 5,917 1,521

See’s Candies …………. 26,644 27,411 26,644 24,526 13,380 12,212

Associated Retail Stores .. (1,072) 697 (1,072) 697 (579) 355

Blue Chip Stamps(2) (1,843) (1,422) (1,843) (1,876) (899) (353)

Mutual Savings and Loan … 1,456 (798) 1,166 (467) 3,151 1,917

Precision Steel ……….. 4,092 3,241 3,278 2,102 1,696 1,136

Textiles ……………… 418 (100) 418 (100) 226 (63)

Wesco Financial ……….. 9,777 7,493 7,831 4,844 4,828 3,448

Amortization of Goodwill .. (1,434) (532) (1,434) (563) (1,434) (563)

Interest on Debt ………. (14,734) (15,104) (14,097) (13,844) (7,452) (7,346)

Shareholder-Designated

Contributions ………. (3,179) (3,066) (3,179) (3,066) (1,716) (1,656)

Other ………………… 4,932 10,121 4,529 9,623 3,476 8,490


Operating Earnings ………. 87,739 61,043 82,021 51,410 70,015 48,644

Special GEICO Distribution .. – 19,575 – 19,575 – 18,224

Special Gen. Foods Distribution 8,111 – 7,896 – 7,294 –

Sales of securities and

unusual sales of assets .. 104,699 67,260 101,376 65,089 71,587 45,298


Total Earnings - all entities $200,549 $147,878 $191,293 $136,074 $148,896 $112,166

======== ======== ======== ======== ======== ========

(1) 1983 figures are those for October through December.

(2) 1984 and 1983 are not comparable; major assets were

transferred in the mid-year 1983 merger of Blue Chip Stamps.

Sharp-eyed shareholders will notice that the amount of the

special GEICO distribution and its location in the table have

been changed from the presentation of last year. Though they

reclassify and reduce “accounting” earnings, the changes are

entirely of form, not of substance. The story behind the

changes, however, is interesting.

As reported last year: (1) in mid-1983 GEICO made a tender

offer to buy its own shares; (2) at the same time, we agreed by

written contract to sell GEICO an amount of its shares that would

be proportionately related to the aggregate number of shares

GEICO repurchased via the tender from all other shareholders; (3)

at completion of the tender, we delivered 350,000 shares to

GEICO, received $21 million cash, and were left owning exactly

the same percentage of GEICO that we owned before the tender; (4)

GEICO’s transaction with us amounted to a proportionate

redemption, an opinion rendered us, without qualification, by a

leading law firm; (5) the Tax Code logically regards such

proportionate redemptions as substantially equivalent to

dividends and, therefore, the $21 million we received was taxed

at only the 6.9% inter-corporate dividend rate; (6) importantly,

that $21 million was far less than the previously-undistributed

earnings that had inured to our ownership in GEICO and, thus,

from the standpoint of economic substance, was in our view

equivalent to a dividend.

Because it was material and unusual, we highlighted the

GEICO distribution last year to you, both in the applicable

quarterly report and in this section of the annual report.

Additionally, we emphasized the transaction to our auditors,

Peat, Marwick, Mitchell & Co. Both the Omaha office of Peat

Marwick and the reviewing Chicago partner, without objection,

concurred with our dividend presentation.

In 1984, we had a virtually identical transaction with

General Foods. The only difference was that General Foods

repurchased its stock over a period of time in the open market,

whereas GEICO had made a “one-shot” tender offer. In the General

Foods case we sold to the company, on each day that it

repurchased shares, a quantity of shares that left our ownership

percentage precisely unchanged. Again our transaction was

pursuant to a written contract executed before repurchases began.

And again the money we received was far less than the retained

earnings that had inured to our ownership interest since our

purchase. Overall we received $21,843,601 in cash from General

Foods, and our ownership remained at exactly 8.75%.

At this point the New York office of Peat Marwick came into

the picture. Late in 1984 it indicated that it disagreed with

the conclusions of the firm’s Omaha office and Chicago reviewing

partner. The New York view was that the GEICO and General Foods

transactions should be treated as sales of stock by Berkshire

rather than as the receipt of dividends. Under this accounting

approach, a portion of the cost of our investment in the stock of

each company would be charged against the redemption payment and

any gain would be shown as a capital gain, not as dividend

income. This is an accounting approach only, having no bearing

on taxes: Peat Marwick agrees that the transactions were

dividends for IRS purposes.

We disagree with the New York position from both the

viewpoint of economic substance and proper accounting. But, to

avoid a qualified auditor’s opinion, we have adopted herein Peat

Marwick’s 1984 view and restated 1983 accordingly. None of this,

however, has any effect on intrinsic business value: our

ownership interests in GEICO and General Foods, our cash, our

taxes, and the market value and tax basis of our holdings all

remain the same.

This year we have again entered into a contract with General

Foods whereby we will sell them shares concurrently with open

market purchases that they make. The arrangement provides that

our ownership interest will remain unchanged at all times. By

keeping it so, we will insure ourselves dividend treatment for

tax purposes. In our view also, the economic substance of this

transaction again is the creation of dividend income. However,

we will account for the redemptions as sales of stock rather than

dividend income unless accounting rules are adopted that speak

directly to this point. We will continue to prominently identify

any such special transactions in our reports to you.

While we enjoy a low tax charge on these proportionate

redemptions, and have participated in several of them, we view

such repurchases as at least equally favorable for shareholders

who do not sell. When companies with outstanding businesses and

comfortable financial positions find their shares selling far

below intrinsic value in the marketplace, no alternative action

can benefit shareholders as surely as repurchases.

(Our endorsement of repurchases is limited to those dictated

by price/value relationships and does not extend to the

“greenmail” repurchase - a practice we find odious and repugnant.

In these transactions, two parties achieve their personal ends by

exploitation of an innocent and unconsulted third party. The

players are: (1) the “shareholder” extortionist who, even before

the ink on his stock certificate dries, delivers his “your-

money-or-your-life” message to managers; (2) the corporate

insiders who quickly seek peace at any price - as long as the

price is paid by someone else; and (3) the shareholders whose

money is used by (2) to make (1) go away. As the dust settles,

the mugging, transient shareholder gives his speech on “free

enterprise”, the muggee management gives its speech on “the best

interests of the company”, and the innocent shareholder standing

by mutely funds the payoff.)

The companies in which we have our largest investments have

all engaged in significant stock repurhases at times when wide

discrepancies existed between price and value. As shareholders,

we find this encouraging and rewarding for two important reasons

understood. The obvious point involves basic arithmetic: major

repurchases at prices well below per-share intrinsic business

value immediately increase, in a highly significant way, that

value. When companies purchase their own stock, they often find

it easy to get $2 of present value for $1. Corporate acquisition

programs almost never do as well and, in a discouragingly large

number of cases, fail to get anything close to $1 of value for

each $1 expended.

The other benefit of repurchases is less subject to precise

measurement but can be fully as important over time. By making

repurchases when a company’s market value is well below its

business value, management clearly demonstrates that it is given

to actions that enhance the wealth of shareholders, rather than

to actions that expand management’s domain but that do nothing

for (or even harm) shareholders. Seeing this, shareholders and

potential shareholders increase their estimates of future returns

from the business. This upward revision, in turn, produces

market prices more in line with intrinsic business value. These

prices are entirely rational. Investors should pay more for a

business that is lodged in the hands of a manager with

demonstrated pro-shareholder leanings than for one in the hands

of a self-interested manager marching to a different drummer. (To

make the point extreme, how much would you pay to be a minority

shareholder of a company controlled by Robert Wesco?)

The key word is “demonstrated”. A manager who consistently

turns his back on repurchases, when these clearly are in the

interests of owners, reveals more than he knows of his

motivations. No matter how often or how eloquently he mouths

some public relations-inspired phrase such as “maximizing

shareholder wealth” (this season’s favorite), the market

correctly discounts assets lodged with him. His heart is not

listening to his mouth - and, after a while, neither will the

market.

We have prospered in a very major way - as have other

shareholders - by the large share repurchases of GEICO,

Washington Post, and General Foods, our three largest holdings.

(Exxon, in which we have our fourth largest holding, has also

wisely and aggressively repurchased shares but, in this case, we

have only recently established our position.) In each of these

companies, shareholders have had their interests in outstanding

businesses materially enhanced by repurchases made at bargain

prices. We feel very comfortable owning interests in businesses

such as these that offer excellent economics combined with

shareholder-conscious managements.

The following table shows our 1984 yearend net holdings in

marketable equities. All numbers exclude the interests

attributable to minority shareholders of Wesco and Nebraska

Furniture Mart.

No. of Shares Cost Market


(000s omitted)

690,975 Affiliated Publications, Inc. ……. $ 3,516 $ 32,908

740,400 American Broadcasting Companies, Inc. 44,416 46,738

3,895,710 Exxon Corporation ………………. 173,401 175,307

4,047,191 General Foods Corporation ……….. 149,870 226,137

6,850,000 GEICO Corporation ………………. 45,713 397,300

2,379,200 Handy & Harman …………………. 27,318 38,662

818,872 Interpublic Group of Companies, Inc. 2,570 28,149

555,949 Northwest Industries 26,581 27,242

2,553,488 Time, Inc. …………………….. 89,327 109,162

1,868,600 The Washington Post Company ……… 10,628 149,955


$573,340 $1,231,560

All Other Common Stockholdings 11,634 37,326


Total Common Stocks $584,974 $1,268,886

========== ==========

It’s been over ten years since it has been as difficult as

now to find equity investments that meet both our qualitative

standards and our quantitative standards of value versus price.

We try to avoid compromise of these standards, although we find

doing nothing the most difficult task of all. (One English

statesman attributed his country’s greatness in the nineteenth

century to a policy of “masterly inactivity”. This is a strategy

that is far easier for historians to commend than for

participants to follow.)

In addition to the figures supplied at the beginning of this

section, information regarding the businesses we own appears in

Management’s Discussion on pages 42-47. An amplified discussion

of Wesco’s businesses appears in Charlie Munger’s report on pages

50-59. You will find particularly interesting his comments about

conditions in the thrift industry. Our other major controlled

businesses are Nebraska Furniture Mart, See’s, Buffalo Evening

News, and the Insurance Group, to which we will give some special

attention here.

Nebraska Furniture Mart

Last year I introduced you to Mrs. B (Rose Blumkin) and her

family. I told you they were terrific, and I understated the

case. After another year of observing their remarkable talents

and character, I can honestly say that I never have seen a

managerial group that either functions or behaves better than the

Blumkin family.

Mrs. B, Chairman of the Board, is now 91, and recently was

quoted in the local newspaper as saying, “I come home to eat and

sleep, and that’s about it. I can’t wait until it gets daylight

so I can get back to the business”. Mrs. B is at the store seven

days a week, from opening to close, and probably makes more

decisions in a day than most CEOs do in a year (better ones,

too).

In May Mrs. B was granted an Honorary Doctorate in

Commercial Science by New York University. (She’s a “fast track”

student: not one day in her life was spent in a school room prior

to her receipt of the doctorate.) Previous recipients of honorary

degrees in business from NYU include Clifton Garvin, Jr., CEO of

Exxon Corp.; Walter Wriston, then CEO of Citicorp; Frank Cary,

then CEO of IBM; Tom Murphy, then CEO of General Motors; and,

most recently, Paul Volcker. (They are in good company.)

The Blumkin blood did not run thin. Louie, Mrs. B’s son,

and his three boys, Ron, Irv, and Steve, all contribute in full

measure to NFM’s amazing success. The younger generation has

attended the best business school of them all - that conducted by

Mrs. B and Louie - and their training is evident in their

performance.

Last year NFM’s net sales increased by $14.3 million,

bringing the total to $115 million, all from the one store in

Omaha. That is by far the largest volume produced by a single

home furnishings store in the United States. In fact, the gain

in sales last year was itself greater than the annual volume of

many good-sized successful stores. The business achieves this

success because it deserves this success. A few figures will

tell you why.

In its fiscal 1984 10-K, the largest independent specialty

retailer of home furnishings in the country, Levitz Furniture,

described its prices as “generally lower than the prices charged

by conventional furniture stores in its trading area”. Levitz,

in that year, operated at a gross margin of 44.4% (that is, on

average, customers paid it $100 for merchandise that had cost it

$55.60 to buy). The gross margin at NFM is not much more than

half of that. NFM’s low mark-ups are possible because of its

exceptional efficiency: operating expenses (payroll, occupancy,

advertising, etc.) are about 16.5% of sales versus 35.6% at

Levitz.

None of this is in criticism of Levitz, which has a well-

managed operation. But the NFM operation is simply extraordinary

(and, remember, it all comes from a $500 investment by Mrs. B in

1937). By unparalleled efficiency and astute volume purchasing,

NFM is able to earn excellent returns on capital while saving its

customers at least $30 million annually from what, on average, it

would cost them to buy the same merchandise at stores maintaining

typical mark-ups. Such savings enable NFM to constantly widen

its geographical reach and thus to enjoy growth well beyond the

natural growth of the Omaha market.

I have been asked by a number of people just what secrets

the Blumkins bring to their business. These are not very

esoteric. All members of the family: (1) apply themselves with

an enthusiasm and energy that would make Ben Franklin and Horatio

Alger look like dropouts; (2) define with extraordinary realism

their area of special competence and act decisively on all

matters within it; (3) ignore even the most enticing propositions

failing outside of that area of special competence; and, (4)

unfailingly behave in a high-grade manner with everyone they deal

with. (Mrs. B boils it down to “sell cheap and tell the truth”.)

Our evaluation of the integrity of Mrs. B and her family was

demonstrated when we purchased 90% of the business: NFM had never

had an audit and we did not request one; we did not take an

inventory nor verify the receivables; we did not check property

titles. We gave Mrs. B a check for $55 million and she gave us

her word. That made for an even exchange.

You and I are fortunate to be in partnership with the

Blumkin family.

See’s Candy Shops, Inc.

Below is our usual recap of See’s performance since the time

of purchase by Blue Chip Stamps:

52-53 Week Year Operating Number of Number of

Ended About Sales Profits Pounds of Stores Open

December 31 Revenues After Taxes Candy Sold at Year End


1984 ………….. $135,946,000 $13,380,000 24,759,000 214

1983 (53 weeks) … 133,531,000 13,699,000 24,651,000 207

1982 ………….. 123,662,000 11,875,000 24,216,000 202

1981 ………….. 112,578,000 10,779,000 24,052,000 199

1980 ………….. 97,715,000 7,547,000 24,065,000 191

1979 ………….. 87,314,000 6,330,000 23,985,000 188

1978 ………….. 73,653,000 6,178,000 22,407,000 182

1977 ………….. 62,886,000 6,154,000 20,921,000 179

1976 (53 weeks) … 56,333,000 5,569,000 20,553,000 173

1975 ………….. 50,492,000 5,132,000 19,134,000 172

1974 ………….. 41,248,000 3,021,000 17,883,000 170

1973 ………….. 35,050,000 1,940,000 17,813,000 169

1972 ………….. 31,337,000 2,083,000 16,954,000 167

This performance has not been produced by a generally rising

tide. To the contrary, many well-known participants in the

boxed-chocolate industry either have lost money in this same

period or have been marginally profitable. To our knowledge,

only one good-sized competitor has achieved high profitability.

The success of See’s reflects the combination of an exceptional

product and an exceptional manager, Chuck Huggins.

During 1984 we increased prices considerably less than has

been our practice in recent years: per-pound realization was

$5.49, up only 1.4% from 1983. Fortunately, we made good

progress on cost control, an area that has caused us problems in

recent years. Per-pound costs - other than those for raw

materials, a segment of expense largely outside of our control -

increased by only 2.2% last year.

Our cost-control problem has been exacerbated by the problem

of modestly declining volume (measured by pounds, not dollars) on

a same-store basis. Total pounds sold through shops in recent

years has been maintained at a roughly constant level only by the

net addition of a few shops annually. This more-shops-to-get-

the-same-volume situation naturally puts heavy pressure on per-

pound selling costs.

In 1984, same-store volume declined 1.1%. Total shop volume,

however, grew 0.6% because of an increase in stores. (Both

percentages are adjusted to compensate for a 53-week fiscal year

in 1983.)

See’s business tends to get a bit more seasonal each year.

In the four weeks prior to Christmas, we do 40% of the year’s

volume and earn about 75% of the year’s profits. We also earn

significant sums in the Easter and Valentine’s Day periods, but

pretty much tread water the rest of the year. In recent years,

shop volume at Christmas has grown in relative importance, and so

have quantity orders and mail orders. The increased

concentration of business in the Christmas period produces a

multitude of managerial problems, all of which have been handled

by Chuck and his associates with exceptional skill and grace.

Their solutions have in no way involved compromises in

either quality of service or quality of product. Most of our

larger competitors could not say the same. Though faced with

somewhat less extreme peaks and valleys in demand than we, they

add preservatives or freeze the finished product in order to

smooth the production cycle and thereby lower unit costs. We

reject such techniques, opting, in effect, for production

headaches rather than product modification.

Our mall stores face a host of new food and snack vendors

that provide particularly strong competition at non-holiday

periods. We need new products to fight back and during 1984 we

introduced six candy bars that, overall, met with a good

reception. Further product introductions are planned.

In 1985 we will intensify our efforts to keep per-pound cost

increases below the rate of inflation. Continued success in

these efforts, however, will require gains in same-store

poundage. Prices in 1985 should average 6% - 7% above those of

  1. Assuming no change in same-store volume, profits should

show a moderate gain.

Buffalo Evening News

Profits at the News in 1984 were considerably greater than

we expected. As at See’s, excellent progress was made in

controlling costs. Excluding hours worked in the newsroom, total

hours worked decreased by about 2.8%. With this productivity

improvement, overall costs increased only 4.9%. This performance

by Stan Lipsey and his management team was one of the best in the

industry.

However, we now face an acceleration in costs. In mid-1984

we entered into new multi-year union contracts that provided for

a large “catch-up” wage increase. This catch-up is entirely

appropriate: the cooperative spirit of our unions during the

unprofitable 1977-1982 period was an important factor in our

success in remaining cost competitive with The Courier-Express.

Had we not kept costs down, the outcome of that struggle might

well have been different.

Because our new union contracts took effect at varying

dates, little of the catch-up increase was reflected in our 1984

costs. But the increase will be almost totally effective in 1985

and, therefore, our unit labor costs will rise this year at a

rate considerably greater than that of the industry. We expect

to mitigate this increase by continued small gains in

productivity, but we cannot avoid significantly higher wage costs

this year. Newsprint price trends also are less favorable now

than they were in 1984. Primarily because of these two factors,

we expect at least a minor contraction in margins at the News.

Working in our favor at the News are two factors of major

economic importance:

(1) Our circulation is concentrated to an unusual degree

in the area of maximum utility to our advertisers.

“Regional” newspapers with wide-ranging circulation, on

the other hand, have a significant portion of their

circulation in areas that are of negligible utility to

most advertisers. A subscriber several hundred miles

away is not much of a prospect for the puppy you are

offering to sell via a classified ad - nor for the

grocer with stores only in the metropolitan area.

“Wasted” circulation - as the advertisers call it -

hurts profitability: expenses of a newspaper are

determined largely by gross circulation while

advertising revenues (usually 70% - 80% of total

revenues) are responsive only to useful circulation;

(2) Our penetration of the Buffalo retail market is

exceptional; advertisers can reach almost all of their

potential customers using only the News.

Last year I told you about this unusual reader acceptance:

among the 100 largest newspapers in the country, we were then

number one, daily, and number three, Sunday, in penetration. The

most recent figures show us number one in penetration on weekdays

and number two on Sunday. (Even so, the number of households in

Buffalo has declined, so our current weekday circulation is down

slightly; on Sundays it is unchanged.)

I told you also that one of the major reasons for this

unusual acceptance by readers was the unusual quantity of news

that we delivered to them: a greater percentage of our paper is

devoted to news than is the case at any other dominant paper in

our size range. In 1984 our “news hole” ratio was 50.9%, (versus

50.4% in 1983), a level far above the typical 35% - 40%. We will

continue to maintain this ratio in the 50% area. Also, though we

last year reduced total hours worked in other departments, we

maintained the level of employment in the newsroom and, again,

will continue to do so. Newsroom costs advanced 9.1% in 1984, a

rise far exceeding our overall cost increase of 4.9%.

Our news hole policy costs us significant extra money for

newsprint. As a result, our news costs (newsprint for the news

hole plus payroll and expenses of the newsroom) as a percentage

of revenue run higher than those of most dominant papers of our

size. There is adequate room, however, for our paper or any

other dominant paper to sustain these costs: the difference

between “high” and “low” news costs at papers of comparable size

runs perhaps three percentage points while pre-tax profit margins

are often ten times that amount.

The economics of a dominant newspaper are excellent, among

the very best in the business world. Owners, naturally, would

like to believe that their wonderful profitability is achieved

only because they unfailingly turn out a wonderful product. That

comfortable theory wilts before an uncomfortable fact. While

first-class newspapers make excellent profits, the profits of

third-rate papers are as good or better - as long as either class

of paper is dominant within its community. Of course, product

quality may have been crucial to the paper in achieving

dominance. We believe this was the case at the News, in very

large part because of people such as Alfred Kirchhofer who

preceded us.

Once dominant, the newspaper itself, not the marketplace,

determines just how good or how bad the paper will be. Good or

bad, it will prosper. That is not true of most businesses:

inferior quality generally produces inferior economics. But even

a poor newspaper is a bargain to most citizens simply because of

its “bulletin board” value. Other things being equal, a poor

product will not achieve quite the level of readership achieved

by a first-class product. A poor product, however, will still

remain essential to most citizens, and what commands their

attention will command the attention of advertisers.

Since high standards are not imposed by the marketplace,

management must impose its own. Our commitment to an above-

average expenditure for news represents an important quantitative

standard. We have confidence that Stan Lipsey and Murray Light

will continue to apply the far-more important qualitative

standards. Charlie and I believe that newspapers are very

special institutions in society. We are proud of the News, and

intend an even greater pride to be justified in the years ahead.

Insurance Operations

Shown below is an updated version of our usual table listing

two key figures for the insurance industry:

Yearly Change Combined Ratio

in Premiums after Policy-holder

Written (%) Dividends


1972 ………………………… 10.2 96.2

1973 ………………………… 8.0 99.2

1974 ………………………… 6.2 105.4

1975 ………………………… 11.0 107.9

1976 ………………………… 21.9 102.4

1977 ………………………… 19.8 97.2

1978 ………………………… 12.8 97.5

1979 ………………………… 10.3 100.6

1980 ………………………… 6.0 103.1

1981 ………………………… 3.9 106.0

1982 ………………………… 4.4 109.7

1983 (Revised) ……………….. 4.5 111.9

1984 (Estimated) ……………… 8.1 117.7

Source: Best’s Aggregates and Averages

Best’s data reflect the experience of practically the entire

industry, including stock, mutual, and reciprocal companies. The

combined ratio represents total insurance costs (losses incurred

plus expenses) compared to revenue from premiums; a ratio below

100 indicates an underwriting profit, and one above 100 indicates

a loss.

For a number of years, we have told you that an annual

increase by the industry of about 10% per year in premiums

written is necessary for the combined ratio to remain roughly

unchanged. We assumed in making that assertion that expenses as

a percentage of premium volume would stay relatively stable and

that losses would grow at about 10% annually because of the

combined influence of unit volume increases, inflation, and

judicial rulings that expand what is covered by the insurance

policy.

Our opinion is proving dismayingly accurate: a premium

increase of 10% per year since 1979 would have produced an

aggregate increase through 1984 of 61% and a combined ratio in

1984 almost identical to the 100.6 of 1979. Instead, the

industry had only a 30% increase in premiums and a 1984 combined

ratio of 117.7. Today, we continue to believe that the key index

to the trend of underwriting profitability is the year-to-year

percentage change in industry premium volume.

It now appears that premium volume in 1985 will grow well

over 10%. Therefore, assuming that catastrophes are at a

“normal” level, we would expect the combined ratio to begin

easing downward toward the end of the year. However, under our

industrywide loss assumptions (i.e., increases of 10% annually),

five years of 15%-per-year increases in premiums would be

required to get the combined ratio back to 100. This would mean

a doubling of industry volume by 1989, an outcome that seems

highly unlikely to us. Instead, we expect several years of

premium gains somewhat above the 10% level, followed by highly-

competitive pricing that generally will produce combined ratios

in the 108-113 range.

Our own combined ratio in 1984 was a humbling 134. (Here, as

throughout this report, we exclude structured settlements and the

assumption of loss reserves in reporting this ratio. Much

additional detail, including the effect of discontinued

operations on the ratio, appears on pages 42-43). This is the

third year in a row that our underwriting performance has been

far poorer than that of the industry. We expect an improvement

in the combined ratio in 1985, and also expect our improvement to

be substantially greater than that of the industry. Mike

Goldberg has corrected many of the mistakes I made before he took

over insurance operations. Moreover, our business is

concentrated in lines that have experienced poorer-than-average

results during the past several years, and that circumstance has

begun to subdue many of our competitors and even eliminate some.

With the competition shaken, we were able during the last half of

1984 to raise prices significantly in certain important lines

with little loss of business.

For some years I have told you that there could be a day

coming when our premier financial strength would make a real

difference in the competitive position of our insurance

operation. That day may have arrived. We are almost without

question the strongest property/casualty insurance operation in

the country, with a capital position far superior to that of

well-known companies of much greater size.

Equally important, our corporate policy is to retain that

superiority. The buyer of insurance receives only a promise in

exchange for his cash. The value of that promise should be

appraised against the possibility of adversity, not prosperity.

At a minimum, the promise should appear able to withstand a

prolonged combination of depressed financial markets and

exceptionally unfavorable underwriting results. Our insurance

subsidiaries are both willing and able to keep their promises in

any such environment - and not too many other companies clearly

are.

Our financial strength is a particular asset in the business

of structured settlements and loss reserve assumptions that we

reported on last year. The claimant in a structured settlement

and the insurance company that has reinsured loss reserves need

to be completely confident that payments will be forthcoming for

decades to come. Very few companies in the property/casualty

field can meet this test of unquestioned long-term strength. (In

fact, only a handful of companies exists with which we will

reinsure our own liabilities.)

We have grown in these new lines of business: funds that we

hold to offset assumed liabilities grew from $16.2 million to

$30.6 million during the year. We expect growth to continue and

perhaps to greatly accelerate. To support this projected growth

we have added substantially to the capital of Columbia Insurance

Company, our reinsurance unit specializing in structured

settlements and loss reserve assumptions. While these businesses

are very competitive, returns should be satisfactory.

At GEICO the news, as usual, is mostly good. That company

achieved excellent unit growth in its primary insurance business

during 1984, and the performance of its investment portfolio

continued to be extraordinary. Though underwriting results

deteriorated late in the year, they still remain far better than

those of the industry. Our ownership in GEICO at yearend

amounted to 36% and thus our interest in their direct

property/casualty volume of $885 million amounted to $320

million, or well over double our own premium volume.

I have reported to you in the past few years that the

performance of GEICO’s stock has considerably exceeded that

company’s business performance, brilliant as the latter has been.

In those years, the carrying value of our GEICO investment on our

balance sheet grew at a rate greater than the growth in GEICO’s

intrinsic business value. I warned you that over performance by

the stock relative to the performance of the business obviously

could not occur every year, and that in some years the stock must

under perform the business. In 1984 that occurred and the

carrying value of our interest in GEICO changed hardly at all,

while the intrinsic business value of that interest increased

substantially. Since 27% of Berkshire’s net worth at the

beginning of 1984 was represented by GEICO, its static market

value had a significant impact upon our rate of gain for the

year. We are not at all unhappy with such a result: we would far

rather have the business value of GEICO increase by X during the

year, while market value decreases, than have the intrinsic value

increase by only 1/2 X with market value soaring. In GEICO’s

case, as in all of our investments, we look to business

performance, not market performance. If we are correct in

expectations regarding the business, the market eventually will

follow along.

You, as shareholders of Berkshire, have benefited in

enormous measure from the talents of GEICO’s Jack Byrne, Bill

Snyder, and Lou Simpson. In its core business - low-cost auto

and homeowners insurance - GEICO has a major, sustainable

competitive advantage. That is a rare asset in business

generally, and it’s almost non-existent in the field of financial

services. (GEICO, itself, illustrates this point: despite the

company’s excellent management, superior profitability has eluded

GEICO in all endeavors other than its core business.) In a large

industry, a competitive advantage such as GEICO’s provides the

potential for unusual economic rewards, and Jack and Bill

continue to exhibit great skill in realizing that potential.

Most of the funds generated by GEICO’s core insurance

operation are made available to Lou for investment. Lou has the

rare combination of temperamental and intellectual

characteristics that produce outstanding long-term investment

performance. Operating with below-average risk, he has generated

returns that have been by far the best in the insurance industry.

I applaud and appreciate the efforts and talents of these three

outstanding managers.

Errors in Loss Reserving

Any shareholder in a company with important interests in the

property/casualty insurance business should have some

understanding of the weaknesses inherent in the reporting of

current earnings in that industry. Phil Graham, when publisher

of the Washington Post, described the daily newspaper as “a first

rough draft of history”. Unfortunately, the financial statements

of a property/casualty insurer provide, at best, only a first

rough draft of earnings and financial condition.

The determination of costs is the main problem. Most of an

insurer’s costs result from losses on claims, and many of the

losses that should be charged against the current year’s revenue

are exceptionally difficult to estimate. Sometimes the extent of

these losses, or even their existence, is not known for decades.

The loss expense charged in a property/casualty company’s

current income statement represents: (1) losses that occurred and

were paid during the year; (2) estimates for losses that occurred

and were reported to the insurer during the year, but which have

yet to be settled; (3) estimates of ultimate dollar costs for

losses that occurred during the year but of which the insurer is

unaware (termed “IBNR”: incurred but not reported); and (4) the

net effect of revisions this year of similar estimates for (2)

and (3) made in past years.

Such revisions may be long delayed, but eventually any

estimate of losses that causes the income for year X to be

misstated must be corrected, whether it is in year X + 1, or

X + 10. This, perforce, means that earnings in the year of

correction also are misstated. For example, assume a claimant

was injured by one of our insureds in 1979 and we thought a

settlement was likely to be made for $10,000. That year we would

have charged $10,000 to our earnings statement for the estimated

cost of the loss and, correspondingly, set up a liability reserve

on the balance sheet for that amount. If we settled the claim in

1984 for $100,000, we would charge earnings with a loss cost of

$90,000 in 1984, although that cost was truly an expense of 1979.

And if that piece of business was our only activity in 1979, we

would have badly misled ourselves as to costs, and you as to

earnings.

The necessarily-extensive use of estimates in assembling the

figures that appear in such deceptively precise form in the

income statement of property/casualty companies means that some

error must seep in, no matter how proper the intentions of

management. In an attempt to minimize error, most insurers use

various statistical techniques to adjust the thousands of

individual loss evaluations (called case reserves) that comprise

the raw data for estimation of aggregate liabilities. The extra

reserves created by these adjustments are variously labeled

“bulk”, “development”, or “supplemental” reserves. The goal of

the adjustments should be a loss-reserve total that has a 50-50

chance of being proved either slightly too high or slightly too

low when all losses that occurred prior to the date of the

financial statement are ultimately paid.

At Berkshire, we have added what we thought were appropriate

supplemental reserves but in recent years they have not been

adequate. It is important that you understand the magnitude of

the errors that have been involved in our reserving. You can

thus see for yourselves just how imprecise the process is, and

also judge whether we may have some systemic bias that should

make you wary of our current and future figures.

The following table shows the results from insurance

underwriting as we have reported them to you in recent years, and

also gives you calculations a year later on an “if-we-knew-then-

what-we think-we-know-now” basis. I say “what we think we know

now” because the adjusted figures still include a great many

estimates for losses that occurred in the earlier years.

However, many claims from the earlier years have been settled so

that our one-year-later estimate contains less guess work than

our earlier estimate:

Underwriting Results Corrected Figures

as Reported After One Year’s

Year to You Experience


1980 $ 6,738,000 $ 14,887,000

1981 1,478,000 (1,118,000)

1982 (21,462,000) (25,066,000)

1983 (33,192,000) (50,974,000)

1984 (45,413,000) ?

Our structured settlement and loss-reserve assumption

businesses are not included in this table. Important

additional information on loss reserve experience appears

on pages 43-45.

To help you understand this table, here is an explanation of

the most recent figures: 1984’s reported pre-tax underwriting

loss of $45.4 million consists of $27.6 million we estimate that

we lost on 1984’s business, plus the increased loss of $17.8

million reflected in the corrected figure for 1983.

As you can see from reviewing the table, my errors in

reporting to you have been substantial and recently have always

presented a better underwriting picture than was truly the case.

This is a source of particular chagrin to me because: (1) I like

for you to be able to count on what I say; (2) our insurance

managers and I undoubtedly acted with less urgency than we would

have had we understood the full extent of our losses; and (3) we

paid income taxes calculated on overstated earnings and thereby

gave the government money that we didn’t need to. (These

overpayments eventually correct themselves, but the delay is long

and we don’t receive interest on the amounts we overpaid.)

Because our business is weighted toward casualty and

reinsurance lines, we have more problems in estimating loss costs

than companies that specialize in property insurance. (When a

building that you have insured burns down, you get a much faster

fix on your costs than you do when an employer you have insured

finds out that one of his retirees has contracted a disease

attributable to work he did decades earlier.) But I still find

our errors embarrassing. In our direct business, we have far

underestimated the mushrooming tendency of juries and courts to

make the “deep pocket” pay, regardless of the factual situation

and the past precedents for establishment of liability. We also

have underestimated the contagious effect that publicity

regarding giant awards has on juries. In the reinsurance area,

where we have had our worst experience in under reserving, our

customer insurance companies have made the same mistakes. Since

we set reserves based on information they supply us, their

mistakes have become our mistakes.

I heard a story recently that is applicable to our insurance

accounting problems: a man was traveling abroad when he received

a call from his sister informing him that their father had died

unexpectedly. It was physically impossible for the brother to

get back home for the funeral, but he told his sister to take

care of the funeral arrangements and to send the bill to him.

After returning home he received a bill for several thousand

dollars, which he promptly paid. The following month another

bill came along for $15, and he paid that too. Another month

followed, with a similar bill. When, in the next month, a third

bill for $15 was presented, he called his sister to ask what was

going on. “Oh”, she said. “I forgot to tell you. We buried Dad

in a rented suit.”

If you’ve been in the insurance business in recent years -

particularly the reinsurance business - this story hurts. We

have tried to include all of our “rented suit” liabilities in our

current financial statement, but our record of past error should

make us humble, and you suspicious. I will continue to report to

you the errors, plus or minus, that surface each year.

Not all reserving errors in the industry have been of the

innocent-but-dumb variety. With underwriting results as bad as

they have been in recent years - and with managements having as

much discretion as they do in the presentation of financial

statements - some unattractive aspects of human nature have

manifested themselves. Companies that would be out of business

if they realistically appraised their loss costs have, in some

cases, simply preferred to take an extraordinarily optimistic

view about these yet-to-be-paid sums. Others have engaged in

various transactions to hide true current loss costs.

Both of these approaches can “work” for a considerable time:

external auditors cannot effectively police the financial

statements of property/casualty insurers. If liabilities of an

insurer, correctly stated, would exceed assets, it falls to the

insurer to volunteer this morbid information. In other words,

the corpse is supposed to file the death certificate. Under this

“honor system” of mortality, the corpse sometimes gives itself

the benefit of the doubt.

In most businesses, of course, insolvent companies run out

of cash. Insurance is different: you can be broke but flush.

Since cash comes in at the inception of an insurance policy and

losses are paid much later, insolvent insurers don’t run out of

cash until long after they have run out of net worth. In fact,

these “walking dead” often redouble their efforts to write

business, accepting almost any price or risk, simply to keep the

cash flowing in. With an attitude like that of an embezzler who

has gambled away his purloined funds, these companies hope that

somehow they can get lucky on the next batch of business and

thereby cover up earlier shortfalls. Even if they don’t get

lucky, the penalty to managers is usually no greater for a $100

million shortfall than one of $10 million; in the meantime, while

the losses mount, the managers keep their jobs and perquisites.

The loss-reserving errors of other property/casualty

companies are of more than academic interest to Berkshire. Not

only does Berkshire suffer from sell-at-any-price competition by

the “walking dead”, but we also suffer when their insolvency is

finally acknowledged. Through various state guarantee funds that

levy assessments, Berkshire ends up paying a portion of the

insolvent insurers’ asset deficiencies, swollen as they usually

are by the delayed detection that results from wrong reporting.

There is even some potential for cascading trouble. The

insolvency of a few large insurers and the assessments by state

guarantee funds that would follow could imperil weak-but-

previously-solvent insurers. Such dangers can be mitigated if

state regulators become better at prompt identification and

termination of insolvent insurers, but progress on that front has

been slow.

Washington Public Power Supply System

From October, 1983 through June, 1984 Berkshire’s insurance

subsidiaries continuously purchased large quantities of bonds of

Projects 1, 2, and 3 of Washington Public Power Supply System

(“WPPSS”). This is the same entity that, on July 1, 1983,

defaulted on $2.2 billion of bonds issued to finance partial

construction of the now-abandoned Projects 4 and 5. While there

are material differences in the obligors, promises, and

properties underlying the two categories of bonds, the problems

of Projects 4 and 5 have cast a major cloud over Projects 1, 2,

and 3, and might possibly cause serious problems for the latter

issues. In addition, there have been a multitude of problems

related directly to Projects 1, 2, and 3 that could weaken or

destroy an otherwise strong credit position arising from

guarantees by Bonneville Power Administration.

Despite these important negatives, Charlie and I judged the

risks at the time we purchased the bonds and at the prices

Berkshire paid (much lower than present prices) to be

considerably more than compensated for by prospects of profit.

As you know, we buy marketable stocks for our insurance

companies based upon the criteria we would apply in the purchase

of an entire business. This business-valuation approach is not

widespread among professional money managers and is scorned by

many academics. Nevertheless, it has served its followers well

(to which the academics seem to say, “Well, it may be all right

in practice, but it will never work in theory.”) Simply put, we

feel that if we can buy small pieces of businesses with

satisfactory underlying economics at a fraction of the per-share

value of the entire business, something good is likely to happen

to us - particularly if we own a group of such securities.

We extend this business-valuation approach even to bond

purchases such as WPPSS. We compare the $139 million cost of our

yearend investment in WPPSS to a similar $139 million investment

in an operating business. In the case of WPPSS, the “business”

contractually earns $22.7 million after tax (via the interest

paid on the bonds), and those earnings are available to us

currently in cash. We are unable to buy operating businesses

with economics close to these. Only a relatively few businesses

earn the 16.3% after tax on unleveraged capital that our WPPSS

investment does and those businesses, when available for

purchase, sell at large premiums to that capital. In the average

negotiated business transaction, unleveraged corporate earnings

of $22.7 million after-tax (equivalent to about $45 million pre-

tax) might command a price of $250 - $300 million (or sometimes

far more). For a business we understand well and strongly like,

we will gladly pay that much. But it is double the price we paid

to realize the same earnings from WPPSS bonds.

However, in the case of WPPSS, there is what we view to be a

very slight risk that the “business” could be worth nothing

within a year or two. There also is the risk that interest

payments might be interrupted for a considerable period of time.

Furthermore, the most that the “business” could be worth is about

the $205 million face value of the bonds that we own, an amount

only 48% higher than the price we paid.

This ceiling on upside potential is an important minus. It

should be realized, however, that the great majority of operating

businesses have a limited upside potential also unless more

capital is continuously invested in them. That is so because

most businesses are unable to significantly improve their average

returns on equity - even under inflationary conditions, though

these were once thought to automatically raise returns.

(Let’s push our bond-as-a-business example one notch

further: if you elect to “retain” the annual earnings of a 12%

bond by using the proceeds from coupons to buy more bonds,

earnings of that bond “business” will grow at a rate comparable

to that of most operating businesses that similarly reinvest all

earnings. In the first instance, a 30-year, zero-coupon, 12%

bond purchased today for $10 million will be worth $300 million

in 2015. In the second, a $10 million business that regularly

earns 12% on equity and retains all earnings to grow, will also

end up with $300 million of capital in 2015. Both the business

and the bond will earn over $32 million in the final year.)

Our approach to bond investment - treating it as an unusual

sort of “business” with special advantages and disadvantages -

may strike you as a bit quirky. However, we believe that many

staggering errors by investors could have been avoided if they

had viewed bond investment with a businessman’s perspective. For

example, in 1946, 20-year AAA tax-exempt bonds traded at slightly

below a 1% yield. In effect, the buyer of those bonds at that

time bought a “business” that earned about 1% on “book value”

(and that, moreover, could never earn a dime more than 1% on

book), and paid 100 cents on the dollar for that abominable

business.

If an investor had been business-minded enough to think in

those terms - and that was the precise reality of the bargain

struck - he would have laughed at the proposition and walked

away. For, at the same time, businesses with excellent future

prospects could have been bought at, or close to, book value

while earning 10%, 12%, or 15% after tax on book. Probably no

business in America changed hands in 1946 at book value that the

buyer believed lacked the ability to earn more than 1% on book.

But investors with bond-buying habits eagerly made economic

commitments throughout the year on just that basis. Similar,

although less extreme, conditions prevailed for the next two

decades as bond investors happily signed up for twenty or thirty

years on terms outrageously inadequate by business standards.

(In what I think is by far the best book on investing ever

written - “The Intelligent Investor”, by Ben Graham - the last

section of the last chapter begins with, “Investment is most

intelligent when it is most businesslike.” This section is called

“A Final Word”, and it is appropriately titled.)

We will emphasize again that there is unquestionably some

risk in the WPPSS commitment. It is also the sort of risk that

is difficult to evaluate. Were Charlie and I to deal with 50

similar evaluations over a lifetime, we would expect our judgment

to prove reasonably satisfactory. But we do not get the chance

to make 50 or even 5 such decisions in a single year. Even

though our long-term results may turn out fine, in any given year

we run a risk that we will look extraordinarily foolish. (That’s

why all of these sentences say “Charlie and I”, or “we”.)

Most managers have very little incentive to make the

intelligent-but-with-some-chance-of-looking-like-an-idiot

decision. Their personal gain/loss ratio is all too obvious: if

an unconventional decision works out well, they get a pat on the

back and, if it works out poorly, they get a pink slip. (Failing

conventionally is the route to go; as a group, lemmings may have

a rotten image, but no individual lemming has ever received bad

press.)

Our equation is different. With 47% of Berkshire’s stock,

Charlie and I don’t worry about being fired, and we receive our

rewards as owners, not managers. Thus we behave with Berkshire’s

money as we would with our own. That frequently leads us to

unconventional behavior both in investments and general business

management.

We remain unconventional in the degree to which we

concentrate the investments of our insurance companies, including

those in WPPSS bonds. This concentration makes sense only

because our insurance business is conducted from a position of

exceptional financial strength. For almost all other insurers, a

comparable degree of concentration (or anything close to it)

would be totally inappropriate. Their capital positions are not

strong enough to withstand a big error, no matter how attractive

an investment opportunity might appear when analyzed on the basis

of probabilities.

With our financial strength we can own large blocks of a few

securities that we have thought hard about and bought at

attractive prices. (Billy Rose described the problem of over-

diversification: “If you have a harem of forty women, you never

get to know any of them very well.”) Over time our policy of

concentration should produce superior results, though these will

be tempered by our large size. When this policy produces a

really bad year, as it must, at least you will know that our

money was committed on the same basis as yours.

We made the major part of our WPPSS investment at different

prices and under somewhat different factual circumstances than

exist at present. If we decide to change our position, we will

not inform shareholders until long after the change has been

completed. (We may be buying or selling as you read this.) The

buying and selling of securities is a competitive business, and

even a modest amount of added competition on either side can cost

us a great deal of money. Our WPPSS purchases illustrate this

principle. From October, 1983 through June, 1984, we attempted

to buy almost all the bonds that we could of Projects 1, 2, and

  1. Yet we purchased less than 3% of the bonds outstanding. Had

we faced even a few additional well-heeled investors, stimulated

to buy because they knew we were, we could have ended up with a

materially smaller amount of bonds, purchased at a materially

higher price. (A couple of coat-tail riders easily could have

cost us $5 million.) For this reason, we will not comment about

our activities in securities - neither to the press, nor

shareholders, nor to anyone else - unless legally required to do

so.

One final observation regarding our WPPSS purchases: we

dislike the purchase of most long-term bonds under most

circumstances and have bought very few in recent years. That’s

because bonds are as sound as a dollar - and we view the long-

term outlook for dollars as dismal. We believe substantial

inflation lies ahead, although we have no idea what the average

rate will turn out to be. Furthermore, we think there is a

small, but not insignificant, chance of runaway inflation.

Such a possibility may seem absurd, considering the rate to

which inflation has dropped. But we believe that present fiscal

policy - featuring a huge deficit - is both extremely dangerous

and difficult to reverse. (So far, most politicians in both

parties have followed Charlie Brown’s advice: “No problem is so

big that it can’t be run away from.”) Without a reversal, high

rates of inflation may be delayed (perhaps for a long time), but

will not be avoided. If high rates materialize, they bring with

them the potential for a runaway upward spiral.

While there is not much to choose between bonds and stocks

(as a class) when annual inflation is in the 5%-10% range,

runaway inflation is a different story. In that circumstance, a

diversified stock portfolio would almost surely suffer an

enormous loss in real value. But bonds already outstanding would

suffer far more. Thus, we think an all-bond portfolio carries a

small but unacceptable “wipe out” risk, and we require any

purchase of long-term bonds to clear a special hurdle. Only when

bond purchases appear decidedly superior to other business

opportunities will we engage in them. Those occasions are likely

to be few and far between.

Dividend Policy

Dividend policy is often reported to shareholders, but

seldom explained. A company will say something like, “Our goal

is to pay out 40% to 50% of earnings and to increase dividends at

a rate at least equal to the rise in the CPI”. And that’s it -

no analysis will be supplied as to why that particular policy is

best for the owners of the business. Yet, allocation of capital

is crucial to business and investment management. Because it is,

we believe managers and owners should think hard about the

circumstances under which earnings should be retained and under

which they should be distributed.

The first point to understand is that all earnings are not

created equal. In many businesses particularly those that have

high asset/profit ratios - inflation causes some or all of the

reported earnings to become ersatz. The ersatz portion - let’s

call these earnings “restricted” - cannot, if the business is to

retain its economic position, be distributed as dividends. Were

these earnings to be paid out, the business would lose ground in

one or more of the following areas: its ability to maintain its

unit volume of sales, its long-term competitive position, its

financial strength. No matter how conservative its payout ratio,

a company that consistently distributes restricted earnings is

destined for oblivion unless equity capital is otherwise infused.

Restricted earnings are seldom valueless to owners, but they

often must be discounted heavily. In effect, they are

conscripted by the business, no matter how poor its economic

potential. (This retention-no-matter-how-unattractive-the-return

situation was communicated unwittingly in a marvelously ironic

way by Consolidated Edison a decade ago. At the time, a punitive

regulatory policy was a major factor causing the company’s stock

to sell as low as one-fourth of book value; i.e., every time a

dollar of earnings was retained for reinvestment in the business,

that dollar was transformed into only 25 cents of market value.

But, despite this gold-into-lead process, most earnings were

reinvested in the business rather than paid to owners.

Meanwhile, at construction and maintenance sites throughout New

York, signs proudly proclaimed the corporate slogan, “Dig We

Must”.)

Restricted earnings need not concern us further in this

dividend discussion. Let’s turn to the much-more-valued

unrestricted variety. These earnings may, with equal

feasibility, be retained or distributed. In our opinion,

management should choose whichever course makes greater sense for

the owners of the business.

This principle is not universally accepted. For a number of

reasons managers like to withhold unrestricted, readily

distributable earnings from shareholders - to expand the

corporate empire over which the managers rule, to operate from a

position of exceptional financial comfort, etc. But we believe

there is only one valid reason for retention. Unrestricted

earnings should be retained only when there is a reasonable

prospect - backed preferably by historical evidence or, when

appropriate, by a thoughtful analysis of the future - that for

every dollar retained by the corporation, at least one dollar of

market value will be created for owners. This will happen only

if the capital retained produces incremental earnings equal to,

or above, those generally available to investors.

To illustrate, let’s assume that an investor owns a risk-

free 10% perpetual bond with one very unusual feature. Each year

the investor can elect either to take his 10% coupon in cash, or

to reinvest the coupon in more 10% bonds with identical terms;

i.e., a perpetual life and coupons offering the same cash-or-

reinvest option. If, in any given year, the prevailing interest

rate on long-term, risk-free bonds is 5%, it would be foolish for

the investor to take his coupon in cash since the 10% bonds he

could instead choose would be worth considerably more than 100

cents on the dollar. Under these circumstances, the investor

wanting to get his hands on cash should take his coupon in

additional bonds and then immediately sell them. By doing that,

he would realize more cash than if he had taken his coupon

directly in cash. Assuming all bonds were held by rational

investors, no one would opt for cash in an era of 5% interest

rates, not even those bondholders needing cash for living

purposes.

If, however, interest rates were 15%, no rational investor

would want his money invested for him at 10%. Instead, the

investor would choose to take his coupon in cash, even if his

personal cash needs were nil. The opposite course - reinvestment

of the coupon - would give an investor additional bonds with

market value far less than the cash he could have elected. If he

should want 10% bonds, he can simply take the cash received

and buy them in the market, where they will be available at a

large discount.

An analysis similar to that made by our hypothetical

bondholder is appropriate for owners in thinking about whether a

company’s unrestricted earnings should be retained or paid out.

Of course, the analysis is much more difficult and subject to

error because the rate earned on reinvested earnings is not a

contractual figure, as in our bond case, but rather a fluctuating

figure. Owners must guess as to what the rate will average over

the intermediate future. However, once an informed guess is

made, the rest of the analysis is simple: you should wish your

earnings to be reinvested if they can be expected to earn high

returns, and you should wish them paid to you if low returns are

the likely outcome of reinvestment.

Many corporate managers reason very much along these lines

in determining whether subsidiaries should distribute earnings to

their parent company. At that level,. the managers have no

trouble thinking like intelligent owners. But payout decisions

at the parent company level often are a different story. Here

managers frequently have trouble putting themselves in the shoes

of their shareholder-owners.

With this schizoid approach, the CEO of a multi-divisional

company will instruct Subsidiary A, whose earnings on incremental

capital may be expected to average 5%, to distribute all

available earnings in order that they may be invested in

Subsidiary B, whose earnings on incremental capital are expected

to be 15%. The CEO’s business school oath will allow no lesser

behavior. But if his own long-term record with incremental

capital is 5% - and market rates are 10% - he is likely to impose

a dividend policy on shareholders of the parent company that

merely follows some historical or industry-wide payout pattern.

Furthermore, he will expect managers of subsidiaries to give him

a full account as to why it makes sense for earnings to be

retained in their operations rather than distributed to the

parent-owner. But seldom will he supply his owners with a

similar analysis pertaining to the whole company.

In judging whether managers should retain earnings,

shareholders should not simply compare total incremental earnings

in recent years to total incremental capital because that

relationship may be distorted by what is going on in a core

business. During an inflationary period, companies with a core

business characterized by extraordinary economics can use small

amounts of incremental capital in that business at very high

rates of return (as was discussed in last year’s section on

Goodwill). But, unless they are experiencing tremendous unit

growth, outstanding businesses by definition generate large

amounts of excess cash. If a company sinks most of this money in

other businesses that earn low returns, the company’s overall

return on retained capital may nevertheless appear excellent

because of the extraordinary returns being earned by the portion

of earnings incrementally invested in the core business. The

situation is analogous to a Pro-Am golf event: even if all of the

amateurs are hopeless duffers, the team’s best-ball score will be

respectable because of the dominating skills of the professional.

Many corporations that consistently show good returns both

on equity and on overall incremental capital have, indeed,

employed a large portion of their retained earnings on an

economically unattractive, even disastrous, basis. Their

marvelous core businesses, however, whose earnings grow year

after year, camouflage repeated failures in capital allocation

elsewhere (usually involving high-priced acquisitions of

businesses that have inherently mediocre economics). The

managers at fault periodically report on the lessons they have

learned from the latest disappointment. They then usually seek

out future lessons. (Failure seems to go to their heads.)

In such cases, shareholders would be far better off if

earnings were retained only to expand the high-return business,

with the balance paid in dividends or used to repurchase stock

(an action that increases the owners’ interest in the exceptional

business while sparing them participation in subpar businesses).

Managers of high-return businesses who consistently employ much

of the cash thrown off by those businesses in other ventures with

low returns should be held to account for those allocation

decisions, regardless of how profitable the overall enterprise

is.

Nothing in this discussion is intended to argue for

dividends that bounce around from quarter to quarter with each

wiggle in earnings or in investment opportunities. Shareholders

of public corporations understandably prefer that dividends be

consistent and predictable. Payments, therefore, should reflect

long-term expectations for both earnings and returns on

incremental capital. Since the long-term corporate outlook

changes only infrequently, dividend patterns should change no

more often. But over time distributable earnings that have been

withheld by managers should earn their keep. If earnings have

been unwisely retained, it is likely that managers, too, have

been unwisely retained.

Let’s now turn to Berkshire Hathaway and examine how these

dividend principles apply to it. Historically, Berkshire has

earned well over market rates on retained earnings, thereby

creating over one dollar of market value for every dollar

retained. Under such circumstances, any distribution would have

been contrary to the financial interest of shareholders, large or

small.

In fact, significant distributions in the early years might

have been disastrous, as a review of our starting position will

show you. Charlie and I then controlled and managed three

companies, Berkshire Hathaway Inc., Diversified Retailing

Company, Inc., and Blue Chip Stamps (all now merged into our

present operation). Blue Chip paid only a small dividend,

Berkshire and DRC paid nothing. If, instead, the companies had

paid out their entire earnings, we almost certainly would have no

earnings at all now - and perhaps no capital as well. The three

companies each originally made their money from a single

business: (1) textiles at Berkshire; (2) department stores at

Diversified; and (3) trading stamps at Blue Chip. These

cornerstone businesses (carefully chosen, it should be noted, by

your Chairman and Vice Chairman) have, respectively, (1) survived

but earned almost nothing, (2) shriveled in size while incurring

large losses, and (3) shrunk in sales volume to about 5% its size

at the time of our entry. (Who says “you can’t lose ‘em all”?)

Only by committing available funds to much better businesses were

we able to overcome these origins. (It’s been like overcoming a

misspent youth.) Clearly, diversification has served us well.

We expect to continue to diversify while also supporting the

growth of current operations though, as we’ve pointed out, our

returns from these efforts will surely be below our historical

returns. But as long as prospective returns are above the rate

required to produce a dollar of market value per dollar retained,

we will continue to retain all earnings. Should our estimate of

future returns fall below that point, we will distribute all

unrestricted earnings that we believe can not be effectively

used. In making that judgment, we will look at both our

historical record and our prospects. Because our year-to-year

results are inherently volatile, we believe a five-year rolling

average to be appropriate for judging the historical record.

Our present plan is to use our retained earnings to further

build the capital of our insurance companies. Most of our

competitors are in weakened financial condition and reluctant to

expand substantially. Yet large premium-volume gains for the

industry are imminent, amounting probably to well over $15

billion in 1985 versus less than $5 billion in 1983. These

circumstances could produce major amounts of profitable business

for us. Of course, this result is no sure thing, but prospects

for it are far better than they have been for many years.

Miscellaneous

This is the spot where each year I run my small “business

wanted” ad. In 1984 John Loomis, one of our particularly

knowledgeable and alert shareholders, came up with a company that

met all of our tests. We immediately pursued this idea, and only

a chance complication prevented a deal. Since our ad is pulling,

we will repeat it in precisely last year’s form:

We prefer:

(1) large purchases (at least $5 million of after-tax

earnings),

(2) demonstrated consistent earning power (future

projections are of little interest to us, nor are

“turn-around” situations),

(3) businesses earning good returns on equity while

employing little or no debt,

(4) management in place (we can’t supply it),

(5) simple businesses (if there’s lots of technology, we

won’t understand it),

(6) an offering price (we don’t want to waste our time or

that of the seller by talking, even preliminarily,

about a transaction when price is unknown).

We will not engage in unfriendly takeovers. We can promise

complete confidentiality and a very fast answer - customarily

within five minutes - as to whether we’re interested. We prefer

to buy for cash, but will consider issuance of stock when we

receive as much in intrinsic business value as we give. We

invite potential sellers to check us out by contacting people

with whom we have done business in the past. For the right

business - and the right people - we can provide a good home.


A record 97.2% of all eligible shares participated in

Berkshire’s 1984 shareholder-designated contributions program.

Total contributions made through this program were $3,179,000,

and 1,519 charities were recipients. Our proxy material for the

annual meeting will allow you to cast an advisory vote expressing

your views about this program - whether you think we should

continue it and, if so, at what per-share level. (You may be

interested to learn that we were unable to find a precedent for

an advisory vote in which management seeks the opinions of

shareholders about owner-related corporate policies. Managers

who put their trust in capitalism seem in no hurry to put their

trust in capitalists.)

We urge new shareholders to read the description of our

shareholder-designated contributions program that appears on

pages 60 and 61. If you wish to participate in future programs,

we strongly urge that you immediately make sure that your shares

are registered in the name of the actual owner, not in “street”

name or nominee name. Shares not so registered on September 30,

1985 will be ineligible for the 1985 program.


Our annual meeting will be on May 21, 1985 in Omaha, and I

hope that you attend. Many annual meetings are a waste of time,

both for shareholders and for management. Sometimes that is true

because management is reluctant to open up on matters of business

substance. More often a nonproductive session is the fault of

shareholder participants who are more concerned about their own

moment on stage than they are about the affairs of the

corporation. What should be a forum for business discussion

becomes a forum for theatrics, spleen-venting and advocacy of

issues. (The deal is irresistible: for the price of one share you

get to tell a captive audience your ideas as to how the world

should be run.) Under such circumstances, the quality of the

meeting often deteriorates from year to year as the antics of

those interested in themselves discourage attendance by those

interested in the business.

Berkshire’s meetings are a different story. The number of

shareholders attending grows a bit each year and we have yet to

experience a silly question or an ego-inspired commentary.

Instead, we get a wide variety of thoughtful questions about the

business. Because the annual meeting is the time and place for

these, Charlie and I are happy to answer them all, no matter how

long it takes. (We cannot, however, respond to written or phoned

questions at other times of the year; one-person-at-a time

reporting is a poor use of management time in a company with 3000

shareholders.) The only business matters that are off limits at

the annual meeting are those about which candor might cost our

company real money. Our activities in securities would be the

main example.

We always have bragged a bit on these pages about the

quality of our shareholder-partners. Come to the annual meeting

and you will see why. Out-of-towners should schedule a stop at

Nebraska Furniture Mart. If you make some purchases, you’ll save

far more than enough to pay for your trip, and you’ll enjoy the

experience.

Warren E. Buffett

February 25, 1985 Chairman of the Board

Subsequent Event: On March 18, a week after copy for this

report went to the typographer but shortly before production, we

agreed to purchase three million shares of Capital Cities

Communications, Inc. at $172.50 per share. Our purchase is

contingent upon the acquisition of American Broadcasting

Companies, Inc. by Capital Cities, and will close when that

transaction closes. At the earliest, that will be very late in

  1. Our admiration for the management of Capital Cities, led

by Tom Murphy and Dan Burke, has been expressed several times in

previous annual reports. Quite simply, they are tops in both

ability and integrity. We will have more to say about this

investment in next year’s report.


Source

Return Home